The 2021 Hurricane Season has arrived. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggests we should see another active year.
Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above average season, a 30% chance for near average season, and 10% chance for below normal activity. They add that we should not see a repeat of the historic number of storms that were spawned in 2020.
This year NOAA is forecasting 13 to 20 named systems, out of which 6 - 10 could become hurricanes, and out of that number maybe 3 to 5 may reach major hurricane status. Those are systems category three or above, having over 111 mph. If you compare that with was is typical of 14,7, and 3 it appears we should see more action in the tropics.
You will also notice the numbers that are now considered average are higher. That is because tropical formation in the tropics has increased over the last 30 years. The previous totals were 12,6, and 3.
Why the above average forecast?
- El Niño, which is a warming of the Equatorial Waters of the Pacific Ocean, disrupts marine and atmospheric currents alike. When it is active, it causes hostile conditions in the Atlantic Ocean for systems to form and/or grow. It will be absent this year. It's counterpart, La Niña, which makes the environment more conducive for storm formation, may make an appearance towards the end of the season and raise the chances for tropical organization.
- Warmer Ocean temps in the Atlantic Basin. Warm waters of over 80 degrees is the main ingredient in hurricane formation. Models are calling for temps to be above that mark.
- Weaker Trade Winds
- More moisture coming out of West Africa
Names
Now is the time to prepare when everything is quiet. Review your needs and plan accordingly. Don't wait to the last minute. We'll do our part to keep you informed. The entire 7weather team of meteorologists will guide you through the 2021 season. Stay safe.
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