Ian on the move & shifting west

 Tropical Storm Ian is churning through the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Ian is still not looking good on satellite imagery but models insist on it getting stronger as it moves over warm waters.

Most of the clouds and rain remain on the western side of the storm with mostly cloud free conditions on the eastern side.

A NOAA high altitude recon plane detected that the center is tilted. Imagine a tube from an empty roll of paper towels standing upright.  A healthy system would have the center standing straight but in this case it's tilted. This is from Ian still battling shear or very strong upper winds.  As long as the shear is there it will keep the system from intensifying, but once it's gone, Ian will rapidly gain strength.

Where is it going?

For the moment it's moving more SW but eventually it will turn NW moving along the western periphery of High Pressure to the East. This SW jog will delay its turn north. This moved the entire cone west, with more of a Gulf of Mexico trek.

The close up cone places Ian as a category 3 in the Gulf with a possible track towards west Florida.  Most of the Broward / Miami-Dade county Metro areas are out of the cone. This cone may shift over the next day or two depending on what land interaction impacts may do to Ian.  IF the cone does not change So FL may get some gusty winds and heavy rain. The rain could lead to street flooding.

A reminder the cone shows you where the center of the storm may be at the forecasted time. Keep monitoring.

Impacts

• Jamaica & Cuba: Heavy rain fall will lead to flash flooding, land, and mudslides. Hurricane conditions expected by Sunday
• Cayman Islands:Hurricane force winds with heavy rain expected by Monday
• Florida Keys: Street flooding will be possible by early next week 
• Western Cuba: Ian nears as a possible major hurricane. Hurricane Force winds, heavy rain, and flooding are forecast. 
• Florida: Should watch and prepare as the forecast come aims for the state. 
• Mainland South Florida: While not in the cone, impacts will be possible such as heavy rain, gusty winds, and some flooding.

This info is from the Miami NWS office:

To open the long term period, all eyes turn to the tropics as newly
designated Tropical Storm Ian churns in the central Caribbean Sea.

There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding timing and impacts for
South Florida, but regardless expect an increase in rainfall and
potential wind impacts as early as Monday night and potentially
lasting through Wednesday. Stay tuned over the coming days as
forecast details become more focused, but take this weekend to
review your hurricane plan and make sure you are prepared for any
potential impacts.

We hope that Ian is kind throughout the Caribbean and to others down the road. Please stay informed of the latest. Tropical systems never travel in a straight line and can jog in many directions. 

We'll keep watching