Sunday, August 15, 2021

Fred & Grace

 Not a 50's TV show, but a duo of storms in the Atlantic Basin. 



Fred back from the Dead

A hurricane Hunter mission Sunday morning, found that Fred soaked up some heat energy from the warm Gulf of Mexico and ramped back up to tropical storm status.  Folks across the Panhandle should prep for this arriving system. A Tropical Storm Watch is in place from The Alabama/Florida border east to Ochlockonee.

Cone


Grace


The disheveled looking system is just south of Puerto Rico. The island is under a Tropical storm Warning. Dominican Republic has a Flood alert in Place as well as a tropical storm warning. Haiti is under a tropical storm watch. We hope any impacts there will be minimal considering they were just hit with a very strong earthquake .

Cone


If nothing changes, the system should just brush the SE edge of Puerto Rico. Then, once again aiming for the tallest peak in all of the Caribbean in Dominican Republic. This encounter could weaken it considerably, much like it did with Fred. After that, the model consensus is that it will also follow Fred into the Gulf. Too early to take that to the bank as there are many variables ahead. 

Impacts from NHC Data

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches.  Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with isolated 
maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and 
urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday.


Invest 96L


This swirl of clouds and rain about 200 miles NE of Bermuda has a 30% chance for development.  Most models keep it hovering near Bermuda in the short term, then it should go out to northern waters of the cold Atlantic.


We'll be watching

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