Strong Sam

Hurricane Sam is on the cusp of becoming a Major Hurricane, category 3, Saturday morning. It is an impressive small, compact, yet powerful system roaming unimpeded in the Atlantic Ocean.

The satellite imagery from early Saturday clearly shows the "eye" or center of the storm. The eye wall which surrounds it, is where you find the business end of Sam. This ring of destruction, is what we will be watching closely as it moves West-northwest in the days ahead.  

The wind field is modest for the moment. Hurricane force winds over 75 mph, extending out from the center a mere 15 miles with tropical storm force winds of over 40 mph, out to 60 miles.

Sam is traveling slowly over very warm waters and will soak up all this heat energy and achieve Cat 4 status by Sunday. As it nears the Islands, a bit of Shear (strong upper level winds) should pause its growth cycle and slightly weaken it back to a category three.

Recon Missions are tasked for Sunday. Starting with NOAA high altitude recon followed by USAF Hurricane Hunters. This data will help get a better understanding of Sam's structure and atmospheric surroundings.

Where is it Headed?

A big dome of High Pressure in the Atlantic is the main driver in pushing Sam to the West. In about 4 - 5 days, the high begins to move East permitting Sam to start a northward jog. This should allow it to turn away from the Islands. At the same time, a front moves off the Eastern Seaboard, keeping Sam away from the Bahamas, Turks & Caicos, & Florida.

As it leaves the vicinity of the Leeward Islands, it will start to pick up some forward speed. Down the road, the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes may have to deal with Sam. 

Models

Models are in fair agreement the center of Sam should pass NNE of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, & Puerto Rico.

The NAVY model illustrates extremely well what should happen in the days ahead. The tight swirl in the middle of the map is Hurricane Sam. The orange surrounding it is High Pressure. The High will develop a weakness or a gap as it slides East, to which Sam will travel through.  The path in the Atmosphere may take it close to New England, but it is too early to tell.

If all the forecast projections pan out, Sam should be a worry for Marine Interests. Lets keep our fingers crossed.

We'll be watching