New Seasonal Forecast, New Storm?

 The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues the official forecast for the 2021 season.

They are calling for 13 - 20 named systems, out of which 6 - 10 could become hurricanes, and out of that number 3 - 5 may intensify into major storms. Those are category threes or above or those having winds over 111 mph.   Compare that with the new normal of 14, 7, and 3, and it appears we should see an above average year.  The new normals are higher than the previous 12,6,& 3 due to the fact that over the last 30 years we have seen more activity throughout the tropics. 

What this forecast can never tell us is where and when a storm could make landfall, so prepare as if we will get hit, and you should be ready for whatever Mother Nature sends our way.

2020 was a record setting year with 30 named systems. The most active year since record keeping began. NHC ran out of names and was forced to us the Greek Alphabet to follow storms. 

Use this time now before hurricane season really heats up to gather what you may need to weather any storm threat.

Early Tropical Activity

Hurricane season does not start until June 1st, but already NHC is following a disturbance capable of becoming the first named system. This spin in the Western Atlantic has a 80% chance of developing over two days, or a 90% chance over 5 days in the area highlighted in red.

The Latest Satellite imagery shows a surface circulation in the middle of the loop and away from the bright infrared colored clouds. If the center remains mostly cloud free and with a cold core, it could be classified as a subtropical system.

This feature is now Invest 90L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 90 is a tracking number, (the next one will be 91, then 92, etc...) and "L" stands for the Atlantic basin.

Models

At this stage of the game, since nothing has developed, most models are providing an educated guess.  The few runs available suggest the system should stay over the open waters of the Atlantic .

We'll be watching.

Starting Tuesday June 1st, I will be launching a humble Podcast called "Weather or Not" where I'll chat about weather, science, space, and the occasional satellite falling from the sky. Check us out on Google, Apple, and Spotify.  Thank you so much.