Caribbean Elsa & then?

 On Sunday morning, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was moving between Jamaica and Cuba and traveling away from Haiti & Dominican Republic.  Its next stop will be Cuba.

Elsa is proving to be a difficult system to forecast. Imagine you are looking from the top of the storm down to the ocean. Pretend the structure is an empty roll of paper towels. On a healthy system you would probably see straight down to the water. Not Elsa, all you would see are more clouds. That's because its core is more tilted, like the leaning tower of Pisa. This may be due to a few factors. Strong upper winds impacting it and land interaction of its feeder bands. We will look towards later missions for more details.

Recon Data

Conflicting reports from Sunday Hurricane Hunter flight: While its is looking physically better, its wind strength is coming down, from 65 mph earlier to 60 as of 11 am Sunday.

• Cloud cover has built around the center 
• Looks more symmetrical 
• Has a healthier spin 
• The wind center is removed from the spot it had been on earlier missions- A sign of disorganization
• A new wind center has been spotted and it lies where the rain is heaviest - A sign of possible intensification 
• Elsa has slowed its forward speed - May give it a chance to catch its breath

Because there is no real deterministic info on whether it will intensify, another flight is set for the afternoon.

Cone of Concern

The track has barely changed since Saturday morning. It will impact Jamaica & Eastern Cuba on Sunday - directly or indirectly. Keep in mind on the map above, the track shows where the center of the storm is or will be. Systems are much larger than that and heavy rain and gusty winds are capable over large areas outside of the cone.

On Monday as the system is over Cuba, it will start making more of a turn to the north. The Keys and SW Florida remain in the cone and should monitor closely.

Possible Impacts

The main concerns will be rain

• Haiti, Jamaica & Eastern Cuba : Flash flooding with possible land & mudslides and gusts up to hurricane strength 
• Central Cuba: More rain with flooding threat 
• FL Keys & SW Florida: Monday to Tuesday the heavy rain slides in. Flooding is possible.  NHC adds there is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall starting Late Monday.  

The bottom line for Metro Broward & Miami Dade: While the center of the storm will pass over the Keys and into the Gulf, our area will be on the dirty sector of the storm. Outside of the center of circulation, this NE quadrant has the second most intense rain and wind with the potential to brew some tornadoes. Please remain alert.  While the forecast track models are confident in their forecast, any interaction with land could impact Elsa's trajectory.

We'll be watching