Elsa up to 85 mph Winds

Elsa is the Strongest July Hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean, since Emily in 2005. It hit Barbados and the Grenadine Islands Friday morning. Now it's en route for a possible confrontation with the Dominican Republic, Haiti, & Jamaica.

The satellite view shows a more robust system moving over warmer waters than 24 hrs ago. The forecast is coming into better focus in the short term. We'll detail what we know so far. 

NHC Cone of Concern

The main players are still in place. Elsa gets pushed west by High Pressure in the Atlantic. The high is drifting east and will eventually be far enough away to allow the storm to make a northward jog. When that turn occurs is still uncertain.

Models

The suite of models remain in unison through its approach of Haiti and Jamaica. Then they fan out as they do not know where the high will be exactly situated.

The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model

First Frame shows the system just South of Dominican Republic by July 3rd.

The second frame has Elsa between Jamaica and Haiti. If the center stays away from the high terrain of the Dominican Republic and Haiti it may be able to keep its strength and not weaken. This will be something to watch. El Pico Duarte in Dominican Republic stands tall at over 10,000 feet. It is capable of disrupting the storm' circulation. The down side, is that it will cause a lot rain leading to flooding across Hispaniola. 

The third frame then places Elsa near Central Cuba. We will be watching for its intensity closely by then.

Final Frame: Places the storm close to the Keys. Could see heavy rain, gusty winds, and storm surge . The Mainland will be on the NE quadrant also known as the dirty sector. Because of the way a storm spins, outside of the center, this is the second most active part of a system. Heavy rain, wind gusts, and even tornadoes are possible. Miami-Dade and Broward Counties will be on this side.

GFS Global Forecasting System

In this animation you can see the Bermuda High shown as a big red blob. It pushes Elsa NW towards Cuba, Florida, and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. 

Euro Model

This model has the high weakening and moving East quicker. Elsa may be a weaker system once it enters the Atlantic due to its interaction with land. 

Intensity

This is the most difficult thing for models to handle. While new improvements are making the projections better, they are still far from the accuracy enjoyed by the track models.

Saharan Dust

At this moment there is a huge plume of dust that extends from the West Coast of Africa into the Bahamas. This would usually dry the atmosphere around a system starving it of much needed moisture, but it is not happening in this case. Elsa is also traveling over warm waters and that could help keep it as a hurricane.  The islands down the road should stay alert. 

Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits publishes an intensity forecast. It displays what the models say Elsa may pack down the road in the form of winds.  

Zero hour (NOW) starts on the left and goes forward in time to the right. Some models call for Elsa to ramp up to a category 3 with over 111 mph winds in 60 hrs. Another bunch maintain it as Cat 1 through its life cycle, and another handful weaken it to tropical storm strength. 

As mentioned in the previous post, rain will be a huge issue. Everyone in the cone of concern should prepare accordingly. South Florida should take the time this weekend to ready storm plans in case Mother Nature plays dirty.  We'll be watching .