The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of low pressure that may become a depression soon.
This swirl of clouds roughly 150 miles East of Barbados, is showing more promise that it could become the next depression / storm of the 2021 season. It is moving WNW at 10 - 15 mph. More thunderstorms are developing around the center of the spin. Atmospheric conditions are such that could allow for further organization.
Located: 12.8°N 56.2°W
The low will be near the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands later Monday night. It could already be a depression or near depression status by then. NHC is giving that possibility a 70% chance. Even if it doesn't develop, it could be a huge rainmaker for them.
Movement
The models are very much in agreement that the system will travel NW, impacting most of the Greater Antilles. This poses a problem in forecasting intensity, as the islands themselves could impact how strong the system may be. The Dominican Republic and Haiti have very high terrain that could help tear the depression apart but it does so at a great cost. It usually means high rain totals for Hispaniola, leading to flooding, land and mudslides.
This low has some obstacles to overcome.
We begin with very dry air surrounding it due to Saharan Dust. There's a huge plume of it across much of the Atlantic. This typically starves developing systems of the much needed moisture required for storm formation. How much impact it will have, will be closely monitored.
There is also another area of low pressure ahead of it near the Bahamas but in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This could also help keep the system in check. The next few days will be telling. But even if it doesn't organize, it could still mean poor weather for our neighbors to the South.
Possible Impacts
For Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, & Puerto Rico: The heaviest rain is possible Tuesday into Wednesday. Rainfall of 1" - 2" with Puerto Rico as much as 2" - 3" on the Southeastern portion of the island. The potential is there for flooding, mudslides, and very fast rising water in rivers.
The rest of the Caribbean Islands should monitor closely as conditions with this system will fluctuate.
South Florida and the Bahamas: Still too far out with too many variables to tell. But it is hurricane season after all and we should keep an eye on it just in case.
There is another disturbance following this one in the Atlantic, but its chances for development keep dropping. Now down to 20%.
We'll be watching
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