Potential Storm #6

Tuesday morning has us waiting on Potential Storm 6. Will it stay as a weak system or intensify into Tropical Storm Fred. 

Satellite imagery reveals a better looking system this morning, trying to develop your typical hurricane shape but it has yet to close off its center. Until then, no tropical storm. A recon mission is underway to determine if that has happened. 

The system continues to drop plenty of rain across the islands, and has the potential for flooding until it moves out of the region.

Heavy rain has impacted parts of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread into the Caribbean later on Tuesday. This will impact the Greater Antilles over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Forecast

The cone suggests it may stack over most of the land masses in the Caribbean. We will need to watch where the center travels. If it slides over water, it could get a little more stronger. If it tracks directly on land, then a weaker storm can be forecast. This will change as the storms spins and interacts with the terrain. An updated cone is available every 3 hours.

If the center of the system tracks directly over Dominican Republic, it will run into the largest peak in all of the Caribbean, Pico Duarte standing at over 10 feet high. This could shred the system. It could also push it in a different direction. 

Impacts

Data from NHC

RRAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the

following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches.  Heavy rainfall could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential
mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic,
northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas
beginning late Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands.  These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

South Florida

The system should track towards our area and be near us sometime by the end of the week. There are too many variables to determine specific impacts. If the storm manages to keep its center over warm water, it could be stronger by the time it arrives. If it stays over land, it should help keep it weak.  If the center also makes a direct landfall over Dominican Republic, it should run into Pico Duarte, the highest terrain all of the Caribbean. This could shred it apart, or even deviate its track.  It is traveling over hot waters which can provide it plenty of fuel for growth. There is also very little shear in its path.

We are a month away from the peak of hurricane season. Lets be alert and ready if it indeed comes calling.

We'll keep you updated.