The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking what will soon become Major Hurricane Sam. It is now the 7th hurricane this season. In this edition we will cover:
- Health of the System
- Cone of Concern
- Forecast Models
Health
Satellite view
Hurricane Sam, is starting to show the classic Buzz-Saw look. It is small in scale yet it has a well defined center with feeder banding that wraps all around it. These feeder bands (cloud tails spinning into the center) soak up heat energy from the ocean and transport it to the core. This fuels the tropical engine. For the moment, there is some space between the bands and that is keeping Sam in check. For the moment. The wind field remains small stretching out only about 15 miles from center.
Cone of Concern
High pressure in the Atlantic Ocean is the main driver in propelling Sam to the West. The high is forecast to weaken and open a pathway for the system to take. The question, as always, is when and where will this weakness take place. The official cone from NHC has Sam starting to curve northward Wednesday.
Models
The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), places Sam in just about same spot as the GFS. These are only two of the dozens and dozens of computer models that forecast tracks. Most are in the same ball park.
At the moment, Sam will be feasting on plenty of hot water. It will not encounter any atmospheric roadblocks to weaken it. Intensity forecasting is one of the most difficult things to achieve. The Leeward Islands should watch closely. It could get too close for comfort with wind speeds around 125 mph. I would suggest they prepare accordingly.
It appears Florida will stay in the clear, but keep an eye out just in case Mother Nature throws a curve ball. In the long run the Eastern Seaboard should watch carefully.
We'll be watching as well.
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