Watching thee areas

It's very crowded in the Tropics this Tuesday with two disturbances being followed for possible development and one potential storm.

To the right of the image above, we see Africa with yet another wave coming off the Coast. In the center of the picture we find what MAY become Tropical Storm Bonnie, and way up in the upper left hand corner is a small disturbance poised to dump plenty of rain across Texas.

Potential Storm #2

As of Tuesday morning, this system was moving west rather quickly.  This is keeping it from forming a well closed center of circulation and even further thunderstorms.

Sunrise over the Central Atlantic shows some bubbling cloud tops correlating with thunderstorm activity. It will be interesting if the system can overcome many hurdles today. For the moment, the low level spin is moving faster than the higher part of the system. This will keep it struggling for awhile. 

There's also the forecast track. Will the center stay over water and gather more energy from the warm waters or will it move onshore Venezuela and get cut off from its fuel source.

Where is it going?

The forecast cone shown previously, keeps the center hugging the South American Coastline. Even if it doesn't become Bonnie right away, it will dump plenty of rain across the region. From Trinidad & Tobago, over Venezuela & Colombia.  

Eventually, the models do take up to hurricane status just before moving onshore Central America. They suggest warmer waters and low shear in the SW Caribbean Sea could intensify the system.

Impacts (From NHC)

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to 

produce heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands 

and the northeastern coast of Venezuela starting tonight 

into Wednesday.  The following storm total rainfall amounts 

are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 

4 to 6 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning 

area in the southern Windward Islands tonight. Tropical 

storm  conditions are possible in the watch area along the 

northeastern coast of Venezuela

Watches and Warnings

The following areas are under Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings

What is a Potential Storm?

This is a designation NHC uses to allow watches and warnings to be issued, before the low can become an actual Tropical Storm. It gives folks in its path more time to get ready instead of waiting until the storm is on them to do so.

Two other areas being watched 

NHC is monitoring a wave behind Potential Storm #2 with a 20% chance for organization in highlighted area, while another feature is being monitored in the Gulf  with a 30% chance for growth. Both are capable of heavy rain.

In the Atlantic

In the Gulf of Mexico

We'll be watching