Recon set for Today

 The National Hurricane Center (NHC),  is keeping a close eye on a broad area of low pressure spinning off the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday morning.

The big area of clouds entering Western Cuba continues to cause plenty of tropical downpours, but as of this update, it has not organized.  The Northern extent of the cloud mass is being impacted by strong upper level winds zooming West to East and keeping the low in check.  NHC thinks that it should still have a chance to become a depression or even a tropical storm over the next 48 hours.

NHC suggests that it could develop in the area highlighted in red as it moves towards South Florida. They give it an 80% chance for growth.

Even without organization,  heavy rain is forecast for Western Cuba,  South Florida by Friday, and the Bahamas for the first half of the weekend. This timing is preliminary as the forward speed could change once/if the low develops.

NWS Miami is calling for 4 - 8 inches of rain between Friday and Saturday for South Florida, maybe more for the NW Bahamas and Western Cuba.  This will surely lead to street flooding. A flood watch may be issued over the next 48 hours.

RECON

A USAF Hurricane Hunter crew is set for 2 pm this afternoon to investigate the area.  If they find a closed center of circulation, it may called a depression and advisories, cone, and watches by be issued by 5 pm.

MODELS

They are more or less in agreement that whatever develops should move in our direction with a Friday to Saturday time frame. But if you look closely at the area near Yucatan, the models keep the system looping in place for about 24 hours. This may give it more time to soak up heat energy.

We will keep monitoring.