Hurricane Ian & Florida

 The National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded Ian to Hurricane Status early Monday morning.

Overnight Ian intensified and continues to get better and better organized. It is soaking up all the heat energy of the Caribbean waters to grow stronger. The satellite loop shows a more symmetrical system with a better looking eye.

The center of the storm has come together now that shear has relaxed. Ian has a better looking core allowing it to draw up additional moisture for thunderstorm formation.  Imagine the center being a straw standing upright.  Nothing is squeezing the straw or preventing it from soaking up the steam coning off the water.

Also, if you look at the satellite loop, you can see the counterclockwise spin of the hurricane. There are also some clouds moving in the opposite direction. This is called outflow and it's taking place in the very high cloud tops. Basically this is Ian's exhaust pipe. Hot, moist air goes in at the surface and then its spun out as cooler air after it has rendered all its fuel. When this mechanism is happening, it's a tell tale sign that we have a very powerful hurricane in the makings.

What Next?

• Hurricane Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane just before impacting Western Cuba.  This is a mostly rural area of the island. Still, it will cause plenty of rain that will lead to flooding dangers. Winds will cause damage as it it tears its way into the Gulf.
• Forecasts indicate Ian, will thankfully move rapidly over Cuba. Hopefully this will keep the impacts down some.
• Once in the hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico , additional strengthening is anticipated.
• The west coast of Florida should be prepared for what could be a major impact from a major storm.

Possible Impacts

These are projections from NHC

Storm Surge:

E Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge & FL Bay 2-4 ft 
Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas... 2-4 ft

Wind:

Trop storm conditions expected in the warning area in lower Florida Keys on Tuesday. 
Trop storm conditions are possible in watch area     along the Florida west coast by Tuesday evening. 
Hurricane conditions are possible along the Florida West coast within the Hurricane Watch area on Wed, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night.

Rain totals thru Thursday:
Cayman Islands: 3 - 6 up to 8 inches in spots.
Western Cuba: 6 to 10, up to 16 inches.
Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches.
Central West Florida: 8 to 10 up to 15 inches.
Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches.

Ocean Swells:
Swells are expected to begin affecting the Florida   Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida through Wednesday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip         current conditions.

Watches & Warnings:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key    West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key    West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Baykmh

South Florida Forecast:

With so much moisture being swung in our direction, moments of very heavy rain will move in from time to time across our area thru Wednesday. The wind may also pick up within these rain bands.  Marine conditions will also degenerate as the systems passes by to our West.

Please tune in from time to time at WSVN on-air and on-line for the latest. New advisories are issued every three hours now, at 2, 5, 8,  & 11 throughout the day.  While most models keep the center or eye, of the hurricane in the Gulf, its impacts will be felt miles away.

We'll be watching