So. FL. is in the Cone

 As of 5 am Friday morning, The National Hurricane Center (NHC) elevated the status of an area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea to Tropical Depression Nine. The forecast track places South Florida in the Cone of Concern.

 

Tropical Depression Nine may soon be elevated to Tropical Storm Hermine (pronounced Her-MEEN). NHC places the system somewhere inside the shaded area. The center could be anywhere in the cone of concern, as far East as the NW Bahamas and as far West as the Gulf of Mexico. It may be as strong as a Category two or winds greater than 96 mph. By the time it reaches the west coast , it could be as strong as a category three. This would make it a major storm.

Satellite View

The center of the system is just North of Venezuela and Colombia. Clouds and storms have increased on the western side. As of Friday morning it had a good surface spin or circulation that had been visible since the day before. Most of the rain is impacting Northern Colombia.

The depression is not completely firing on all cylinders. Notice the small spin in the middle of the loop, that is the center of the system. Most of the clouds and rain are on the western side. When clouds and rain wrap around the center completely, then a healthy stronger system will be present.

What Next?

The models are coming into agreement more and more. On Thursday the spread was much wider with a few taking it into the Yucatan Peninsula, others into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and some into South Florida. The latests, suggest a NE turn into the Sunshine state. Where exactly it will make landfall is still not certain.

The thinking is that the system will run into either a stalling front or high pressure coming off the U.S. Mainland. This, in turn will force the system East.  Ultimately it will be a matter of timing. How fast will the depression move into the Gulf and how quickly the high and the front make it to the southeastern U.S.

Cone

High pressure in the Atlantic will push Depression 9, NW over warm waters with little atmospheric interference. This will give it a chance to intensify. A reminder that while track forecasting is very good, intensity forecasting is still not 100% accurate. This depression is forecast to become a Hurricane by Western Cuba. It could be stronger or weaker as it passes over the region so remain alert.

Things to Watch for:

• The system will produce heavy rain in Aruba, Bonaire, & Curacao. 
• Venezuela may see 2 - 5 inches of rain
• Colombia: 3 - 6 inches will be possible
• Downpours will later move into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Rainfall forecasts call for 4 - 8 with 12 inches in spots. Watches and warnings may be issued for you later today 
• Southern Dominican Republic & Haiti: 2 - 4 inches with some areas as much as 6.
• By early next week it should be over Western Cuba and near Florida.

This kind of heavy persistent rain can lead to flooding , land , and mudslides. 

Presently

From NWS Miami Weather Office

Based on current model solutions, impacts
could range anywhere from increased moisture and thunderstorm chances
to hurricane conditions over South Florida. Given the widely ranging
model scenarios, it is impossible to say exactly what impacts this
system will have on local South Florida weather at the moment. With
favorable conditions ahead, it appears likely this system will be
strengthening this weekend and heading towards the Gulf early next
week. More details regarding track and intensity of this system will
be better understood in the coming days as models get a better handle
on the storm. In the meantime, it is a great idea to make sure your
hurricane plan is mapped out and you are keeping up with the latest
forecasts from official sources.

It is practical for all of us in the cone to review our hurricane plans and supplies. Remember your pets and medications. Many things can change with this system. The atmosphere is in constant flux so the path and intensity may change. Sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse. It's important to stay informed. You can always get the latest on-air and on-line at wsvn as well as on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. 

Caribbean Impacts

Jamaica: Has already issued an advisory this morning. All the details can be found on this link: Jamaica - Advisory

Cayman Islands issued this statement: The Cayman Islands National Weather Service will continue to monitor the progress of this Depression. The public is advised to keep abreast on the progress of Tropical Depression 9.

Cuba: Presently advising the resident on the Western Side if the island to remain vigilant.

We'll be watching