Hurricane impact on Nicaragua?

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a category one hurricane to impact Central America, specifically Nicaragua. This is due to recently upgraded Tropical Storm Julia. It had been impacting the Coast of South America as Depression 13. 

The storm is basically moving over the Guajira Peninsula, and is still being nagged by land interaction.  Julia is the fifth tropical system to actually cross the Guajira Peninsula, which is part of both Colombia & Venezuela. The last time this happened we need to go back to 1996 with TS Cesar. 

This brush with the South American Coast kept TD 13 in check fbut now it has begun intensification. More clouds are developing along the center spin with additional storms popping up.  

What Next?

The forecast cone suggests that High Pressure's influence from the Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf of Mexico, will push the storm west. 

As it moves away from land it will have a chance to become a hurricane before landfall. 

Headlines

• Through the morning and early afternoon, gusty winds to tropical storm force (over 39 mph) will be possible across the Guajira Peninsula, parts of Venezuela, and Aruba 
• Torrential downpours will lead to flooding, land and mudslides in the areas named above, as well as Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao
• The system is forecast to make landfall by Nicaragua late in the weekend. They along with Honduras should be getting ready for a possible strike 

Rain Forecasts

This will be the biggest impact in parts of Central America and Mexico.  Some spots in interior Nicaragua could see up to 15 inches.

If you have family and friends in Nicaragua and Honduras, please contact them and tell them what is forecast so they can prepare accordingly.

We'll be watching

New System to Watch in the Tropics

As of 11 am Thursday, The National Hurricane Center (NHC),  is tracking Potential Storm 13. This is not a fully organized storm but has the potential to be one shortly. By issuing advisories now, it allows countries in its path to prepare accordingly.

Right Now

It's basically a broad area of low pressure with huge amounts of rain.  The alleged center of circulation is too close to land and thus its spin is somewhat interrupted. This is not allowing it to fully develop.  Winds from the system are picking up to near tropical storm strength and therefore NHC has initiated advisories. 

NHC is having a hard time trying to identify exactly where the center is located.  As of Thursday morning it is being placed just north of Coastal Venezuela.  Being so close to land will keep its intensity in check for a good 24 hours.

Next

High pressure in the Western Atlantic will steer the system west brushing up along Venezuela, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao (ABC islands), and Colombia. It may become Tropical Storm Julia by Thursday evening or Friday morning. 

Over the weekend, the system may get stronger as it will travel impeded over warm waters. This will give it a chance to possibly become a hurricane just before moving onshore across Nicaragua, Belize, Honduras, or Yucatan. 

Important Notes

• Winds over 39 mph are possible along Colombia's coast Thursday night to Friday morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is in place there.  Northern Venezuela, and the ABC Islands, will also experience tropical storm force winds of over 39 mph. 
• Heavy rainfall will make a huge impact leading to possible flash flooding in many areas along the system's path specially along portions of Central America. More watches and warnings may be issued over the next 24 hours.
• Rain may be felt along Jamaica and Grand Cayman as well.

NO impacts for the Bahamas or Florida.

We'll be watching