Weekend Tropical Rain?

As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), says Agatha has weakened into a depression over Mexico. Now it's our turn to keep an eye on whatever is left of the system.

The mass of clouds moving towards the Yucatan Peninsula is Agatha. Not well organized with weaker winds, but still plenty of rain. You will notice a streak of clouds moving west to east just to Agatha's north... this is a strong river of wind known as the Subtropical Jet Stream. It will be the main driver in pushing Agatha's remnants our way. It could also prevent it from restrengthening.  This is something we will track carefully. 

The morning advisory & cone suggests that by this afternoon or early evening, the system will have fallen apart.

What Next?

NHC suggests that Agatha's leftovers may reorganize in the area highlighted in orange. They give this possibility a 60% chance. Even if it doesn't develop, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form and spread all of Agatha's moisture towards Cuba, So. FL and the NW Bahamas.

Model Comparison

Both the EURO & GFS, place a low near Florida by Saturday. The EURO puts it by SW Florida and the GFS in the Straits. While the EURO puts it away from South Florida it would be the wettest scenario for us. The GFS could cause strong downpours by the Keys and some on & off rain for the Mainland. The NW Bahamas will see some heavy rain either way.

 

Weather or Not?

Today we launch season 2 of our science and weather podcast, just in time for hurricane season which begins on Wednesday. In this week's episode, we hear from NOAA regarding how active 2022 may be. We talk to a hurricane specialist about all the work that goes on behind the scenes to bring you advisories and cones of concern. Plus a look back at 2021.  You can find us on Spotify, Apple, or Google. Please check us out. Specially if you love science!! 

Nearby Tropical Action?

A powerful hurricane is battering Southern Mexico at this hour. It will continue towards the coast through Monday afternoon. That's when it's expected to make landfall, with a strong storm surge, heavy rain and intense winds. It may be a major hurricane, category three, by then.

The satellite imagery shows Hurricane "Agatha". A well organized system moving onshore. It has been intensifying rather quickly and is forecast to get even stronger overnight.  The hurricane is moving very slowly northward and will continue to feed off the warm waters. 

Advisory & Cone

The forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center shows a possible landfall Monday afternoon, then inland by Tuesday.

Why the Northeast Track?

This surface map from the Mexican Meteorological Office shows a blue arrow pointing East across Northern Mexico and into Louisiana. That is part of the jet stream, or a strong river of wind in the atmosphere.

Typically, systems that develop in the Pacific Ocean tend to move West/northwest. In this particular case, Agatha is being pushed northeastward due to the subtropical branch of the jet stream.

Looking Ahead

The National Hurricane Center (NHC), suggests that the Mexican High terrain should dissipate Agatha in roughly 36 hours. It should still be over land.  But, if the remnants survive into the Gulf of Mexico, the warm waters there could brew something back up.

NHC says that whatever is left of Agatha, may get its act together once again. If it does so, it is forecast to take place in the area highlighted. At the moment, there's a 30% chance of this scenario happening. This will be just in time for the start of hurricane season which happens on June 1st.  A good reminder to stay with us here, on-line, and on-air for the latest tropical updates.

2022 Hurricane Season Forecast

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its official 2022 hurricane season outlook. The projections call for an above average season.

They are calling for 14 to 21 named systems, out of which 6 to 10 may become hurricanes, and out of that number 3 to 6 could reach major status. Those are hurricane with wind speeds over 111 mph. If you see what the the average numbers are, it looks like 2022 will be an active one.

NOAA says there are several factors for this forecast:

 1) The ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season 

2) Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea 

3) Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons. The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.

A reminder:

None of these forecasts will ever tell us when and where a system will make landfall. It only takes one. We will be here keeping you updated of any storm headed in our direction.

Hurricane season begins June 1st and runs through the end of November. The entire 7Weather team is dedicated to keeping you safe. There are many ways you can reach us. 

• Download the 7Weather or the 7Hurricane tracker apps
• Hurricane Hotline phone numbers. Active when a storm is being tracked. Miami-Dade 305-477-7751 Broward 954-776-7751
• On Line at 7Weather and of course through this blog.

Hoping that no storm threatens us this year.

Fist Invest of 2022

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico for possible development.

In the satellite view, you can almost see the center of the pinwheel just SW of Pensacola.  NHC is giving it a low 10% chance for organization over the next 5 days. 

As of Sunday evening, if the disturbance develops, it will do so over the area highlighted yellow. 

Location

COURTESY TROPICAL TIDBITS

This elongated area of low pressure should move onshore as early as Monday morning. Even without organization, it is capable of heavy rain from Coastal Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida.

Forecast

NHC has deemed this disturbance Invest90L. Invest for an area they would like to INVEST-igate further, 90 is a tracking number and "L" is for Atlantic Basin.   This is the first invest of the season which starts June first.

This is just a reminder, hurricane season is just around the corner. This is the time to review your plans when all is quiet in order to be ready when and if an actual threat takes place.

Extended Stay

Scotland
My lengthy and unexpected stay in Edinburgh, Scotland.

It was the middle of March and my wife, oldest son, and myself were taking a long anticipated trip to visit our youngest son in Scotland.

David has been studying there since the start of Covid through lockdowns and such, and we were bubbling with anticipation to see him.

We landed in Edinburgh on Thursday, March 17th for a 3 hour tour… in all seriousness, for 10 days.

What a magical, historic, and vibrant city, with a blend of “middle ages” buildings peppered with new modern buildings.

Castle to the left and to the right with the city center in the middle.

Pubs, cafes, restaurants, and shops sit side by side as far as the eye can see tempting you to expand your waistline or lighten your wallet.

Cuisines from all over the Eastern Hemisphere abound, from Africa to India, Asia, Mid East, Europe and yes the occasional stray from the west… Mexico. 

Although a few restaurants claim to have Cuban dishes, they turn out to be some form of Mexican food.

Maybe I can retire here and earn spare cash making the real thing with some strong cafecito and croquetas. The Scots will never know what hit them! But I digress.

Geology

For science lovers like myself, the city has a plethora of geologic sites.

Your first Scottish greeting comes from a beautiful feature the locals refer to as a hill, but is more widely known as Arthur’s Seat.

Legendary "Arthur's Seat"

It’s a magnificent display of what once was the inside of an extinct volcano. It gets its name from Camelot and the fabled King Arthur who allegedly won some battles here.

I must have taken dozens and dozens of pics and not one did it justice.

I had shots from the base and some near the top and while the eyes and the soul were tickled in real life, it didn’t come across on my iPhone

The Seat from the ground where it was nice & quiet

Mid way up the hill enjoying the beautiful wild flowers

It got very windy and somewhat rainy near the top, so decided to head back down.

After a quick exploration of the old volcano, it was off to see the school.

University of Edinburgh

We eventually made our way to the University and took in the sights. Here too the college blends the past with the present. The city is adorned with castles and utilitarian buildings that make the college a true international campus with a flair for history.

One of the many libraries for the school

More modern teaching buildings

School Emblem

Arthur's Seat to the left / School building on right

This castle next to the “Seat”, is an administrative building for the school!

Harry Potter?

It is widely believed this city is the birthplace of the young wizard boy.

Wide View of a local cemetery 

Gates of the cemetery 

Tom Who?

While it’s unclear if J.K. Rowling really penned the sorcery novels here, (she’s changed her story a few times) there are plenty of references found in the books. Inside the gates of a local cemetery, there are several names on gravestones that appear in her writings.

If you look closely on the marker to the left, you will find a very important one.

Allergies

We explored the city over the next few days. Warmer temps and sunny skies cued Mother Nature it was time for flowers, buds, and…

...Pollen! Lots of it.

My allergies perked up and I developed my usual runny nose, but it didn't hold me back from enjoying the offerings. I checked out the local museum which features the first cloned sheep "Dolly". She hasn't looked better.

The museum of Natural History - NO Charge

And from the huge...

To the not so big... "Dolly"

The annoying runny nose stopped after a couple of days and we trained out to Glasgow, a mere 45 minutes away.

I can't rave enough about this form of transportation. Beautiful clean trains are everywhere with wide, comfy seats. Best of all you arrive 15 minutes early, board and go.

Glasgow

Our trip here was not part of our itinerary, but it was a great adventure nonetheless. A roommate of my son happens to be an admirer of our "Weather or Not" podcast. Jack, sporting a nice red jacket in the picture, became an even bigger fan when we dedicated a whole issue to the COP26 conference held last year in Scotland. This is a global climate change get-together aimed at curbing the world's Co2 emissions.

Jack gave us a nice tour of his hometown, a gorgeous city dripping with history, culture, and modernism...

Our host, Jack, in the red

... he also invited us to dinner with his family. And then it was time to head back to Edinburgh.

Oh No!

After days of fun, food, and Ferro time, we now had to test for our return trip home. On March 26th, everyone tested negative for Covid, except me. This explains the two days of runny nose, but outside of that, I had no other symptoms. No cough, no fever, no body aches. Thank goodness for the shots!

My family came back on March 27th and I stayed behind in quarantine. My youngest checked up on me daily while I tried to make the best of it. After all, I did not feel sick in any way.

I had a nice room with a view, and even a friend of my son lent me a guitar to pass time. It was great!

My nice downtown hotel

Released

After what seemed like an eternity, my third follow up test on April 3rd, finally cleared me to fly. Now I just had to book a flight back. The soonest was on April 6th. This meant some one-one-one time with David.

Rosslyn Chapel

We decided to go see the chapel made famous by Dan Brown in his novel the "DaVinci Code". It's featured near the conclusion of the film. What a beautiful site.

But the best discovery was the Rosslyn Castle next door, or what's left of it. It's free to see, magnificent, surrounded by nature, and did I mention it's FREE?

Everything Comes to an End

We spent our last night walking and talking about things. That was the real treasure. These are all night shots of the Royal Mile in Edinburgh.

So this explains why a short vacation turned into an extended layover. Thank you for your concern, questions, and patience and above all the great 7Weather team that always pinches in at the drop of a hat.

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