One fizzling, another ramping up

The National Hurricane Center (NHC), maintains its focus on two waves in the Atlantic Ocean. One has its chances for development lowered while another keeps showing signs of organization.

 

On the Satellite image, on the center of the screen there are two cloud masses. The first is the weak wave by the Lesser Antilles, the second to its right is the more vigorous wave. We'll start with the one closest to the Islands.

Wave # 1

This is the early Wednesday morning Satellite view of the Lesser Antilles. This wave has a few showers and thunderstorms. It's moving west at 20-25 mph. 

Its chances for development keep coming down from a high of 40% a few days ago to just 10% Wednesday morning. If it were to develop at all, it would do so in the area highlighted in yellow over a period of 5 days.

Even if it doesn't form, most of the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, & Puerto Rico could see some of its impacts. NWS says the wave is still capable of:

• Heavy rain through Thursday 
• Some isolated flooding 
• Rough Surf & High Seas

Wave #2

It's looking better organized and is now a broad area of low pressure. This is the first indication that it has the potential to become a depression or a tropical storm. It's situated between the Lesser Antilles and the Coast of Africa. Its present movement is WNW at about 20 mph. You can see from the sunrise view that it is getting that well defined tropical spin to it.

NHC is giving it a high probability, an 80% chance, that it could develop into a depression over the next few days. It will follow in the footsteps of the 1st wave, so everyone across the Lesser Antilles and Eastern Caribbean Sea should monitor closely. Even though there is some Saharan Dust to its north, its not being greatly impacted at the moment. 

Models

This Broad Low has been designated Invest 97L, since its inception. These model runs have been consistent since the start of the Invest, and show a possible track through the Windward Islands, then Eastern Caribbean, through Cuba and possibly South Florida. Keep in mind until something forms, they are still just giving us an educated guess. But we are in hurricane season and we should monitor the progress of any activity.

South Florida / Bahamas

Still too early to know with any assurance of what impacts if any, that we'll see from this broad low. Just keep checking back from time to time to get the latest info. We'll be watching.