Tropical Storm Elsa

Tropical Storm Elsa took shape early Thursday morning making it a record setter. It is now the earliest fifth named storm to ever develop. The previous title was just from last year, Edouard from July 6, 2020. It is on course to impact most of the Caribbean Islands.

The satellite animation shows the system overnight thru early Thursday. It has a good spin moving quickly west. Feeder bands are becoming more evident over the last 12 hours, specially to the west and south of the system. 

The intensity models suggest some strengthening as it is moving over warm waters with very little shear. These are strong upper level winds that tend to keep storms in check. 

Models

The system is being propelled west by a dome of high pressure in the middle of the Atlantic. This will continue pushing Elsa WNW over the short term. In the long haul, the high will shift east, allowing the storm to take a turn north. That will be the issue for South Florida, when will that turn take place. Some models suggest an early shift into the Atlantic, while others delay it until the Gulf. Regardless, the state is in the middle. 

The European model, after not doing much with it over the last few days, now takes it more towards the Northwestern Bahamas. The GFS, HWRF, & UKMET models disperse it into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Will be interesting to see 

Cone

The official cone of concern, shows Elsa moving across the Windward Islands on Friday. Watches and warnings are in place there since Wednesday afternoon.  Gusty winds to 40 mph with rain totals between 3"- 8" are possible across the Southern Leeward Islands including Barbados. Flooding along with land and mudslides are possible.

Elsa will then enter the Eastern Caribbean Sea and into warmer waters, but due to its quick forward movement, it may not be able utilize that additional fuel to grow much stronger. NHC is keeping it as a storm through its lifecycle. We know intensity can change at any time so we will monitor it closely.

Puerto Rico remains south of the cone but not without indirect impacts:

• Heavy rain is forecast by Friday night 
• Gusty winds 
• Rough Surf 
• 12 foot Seas

Elsa should slow down as it nears Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, & Eastern Cuba. This is when it should begin its gradual turn northward.  A front coming off the Nation's midsection should help steer it that way as well.

Any interaction with the islands may have an impact on its health as well. 

The Dominican Republic has an Orange Alert for possible Flash Flooding. Haiti, Jamaica, & Cuba are waiting to issue advisories.

Florida & NW Bahamas

These areas need to closely monitor the path of the storm. Even if its not a direct strike or a hurricane, the impacts could be great. Last year a nearby tropical storm caused heavy rain in Ft. Lauderdale leading to very serious damages and power outages. Please be prepared. We are after all in hurricane season.

We'll be watching.