Recon into Invest 92L

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) should get some insight today into a disturbance in the SW Gulf of Mexico from planned hurricane hunter recon. Two missions are tasked.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
       A. 17/1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
       C. 17/1515Z
       D. 21.0N 93.0W
       E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 18/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
       C. 18/1000Z
       D. 24.5N 93.0W
       E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Notice flight one has the disturbance identified as an Invest, while flight 2 already has it as a cyclone.  This may be a heads up that organization may be swift on Thursday.

Satellite View

The actual spin of the broad low is sitting rain free across the Bay of Campeche in the SW Gulf of Mexico. The rain is getting displaced by strong upper level winds and shoved towards the Northeast. South Florida and the NW Bahamas may still get some of this tropical moisture on Thursday. Scattered downpours are still possible. 

Models

The spaghetti plots show that whatever develops will move northward and aim for the Gulf States. 

The Euro and GFS are in agreement this morning on where and when the system could make landfall. Both place the center of circulation over Coastal Louisianan on Saturday.  The European has a slightly wetter system than the GFS.

Euro

The GFS

What to Watch

This is an interesting Satellite picture. A filter is being used to detect Saharan Dust blowing to the West. Some of it could arrive late Thursday afternoon and help dry us out. It should keep us rain free thru Saturday but Sunday it starts to move into the Gulf and things begin to change. It's unknown at this moment how much of an impact it may have on the developing system.

There is an outside chance that while the disturbance heads north and away from So FL,  some of its moisture could get flung our way. This may start upping our rain chances for the second half of the weekend and possibly Monday.  Once the system develops we should get a better handle on our forecast.

 We'll be watching.