System to form in Gulf?

There is a high chance this mess of clouds and rain sitting over the SW Gulf of Mexico, could become a named system soon. It is currently drenching parts of Central America and Coastal Mexico.

Even though its far away rom South Florida and no direct threat to the area, we will sees some of its moisture get whipped our way. The satellite imagery shows how some of the disturbance's rain is being flung in our direction. 

The Health of Invest 92L

Location: Roughly 18.1°N 94.3°W 
Maximum Winds: 25 mph Gusts: 35 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb 
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb 

• It remains disorganized 
• Very close to land, and that's keeping a good circulation from forming 
• There's plenty of hot water and that could give it a chance to grow once it starts moving north
• As of Wednesday morning it has a 70% chance for development over 2 days and 90% in 5 days.

Models

The spaghetti models suggest a northward track. It may end up anywhere between Texas and the Florida Panhandle.

The GFS Model

This models places a system close to Louisiana and Mississippi with the potential for very heavy rain.

Euro Model

This forecast takes whatever develops on a more westerly track, with the center possible aiming for Texas and Louisiana.

What can we expect from this system

While it poses no direct threat at this time, moisture from it will continue to get flung our way. In the short term we start to dry out by Friday as Some Saharan Dust moves in, but it quickly dissipates. On Sunday as the feature in the Gulf gets better organized (and depending on its track) we could see some rain from it arriving in South Florida by Sunday into Monday. This is still far out and there are many variables to contend with. It all depends on the disturbance. I'll keep monitoring.

Weather or Not

In a related note, as Saharan Dust moves in, last year at this same time the Atlantic Basin was dealing with Godzilla, not the fictional monster, but the world's largest Saharan Dust cloud.  Can it happen again? Check out this weeks' podcast of Weather or not. And if you can, please subscribe, it would make my boss happy. Thank you

Click here for the Podcast: Weather or Not?