Friday has Tropical storm Elsa make its first landfall and turning much stronger. Winds went up from 50 mph Thursday night to 75 mph Friday morning 8 am. Elsa is now a hurricane.
All those red colors represent very high cloud tops. Those usually have the most rain associated with a storm. Elsa is moving quickly WNW and is impacting the Island of Barbados followed by St. Vincent later Friday afternoon. Rainfall forecasts call for anywhere between 3" - 10" leading to flooding and possible mudslides. A storm surge of 1' to 3' should move in along the coast as well.
Radar
Rain bands have been impacting Barbados to as far South as Trinidad and Tobago.
Cone of Concern
High pressure in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is pushing Elsa quickly W/NW. No change is expected in the short term. Many areas in its path have already issued watches and warnings.
Sometime late on Sunday or early Monday as it nears Central Cuba, Elsa takes a turn northward. It could then be near South Florida Late Monday or Early Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reminds us that the average cone error by days 4 and 5 is 175 to 200 miles.
Models
The models are spread out determining where the system may end up. The GFS & UKMET project the high moving away slowly and thus track the system more over Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico. A few models place the system across the Yucatan Peninsula.
The European Model suggests the high moves quickly and keeps Elsa on a course into the NW Bahamas. NHC's forecast is a compromise of all these scenarios which keeps Florida in the Cone.
Strength
This is very tricky. While initial model runs on Wednesday and Thursday did not show more than 60 mph winds as it neared Florida, the system is now a hurricane. There is plenty of warm water ahead and it could get stronger. While the 8 am Cone weakens it back to a tropical storm, Haiti and Jamaica should pay close attention as the system nears on Saturday. A reminder intensity forecasting is very difficult and storms can change rather quickly. Remain vigilant.
Elsa's strength looking ahead into Sunday and Monday, will depend over how much land it travels over. If it treks over the highest terrain in the Caribbean, Pico Duarte of the Dominican Republic, then it may be a weaker storm. But if the center stays over water as it moves into Cuba, we could see a much stronger system. NHC says the model gap is so wide, that while some call for it to completely fall apart others ramp it up to a category 3. This is why South Florida should keep an eye on it.
Impacts
Puerto Rico has a chance for 1" - 3" of rain with some spots to 5". Flooding and Flash Flooding concerns there with a chance for mudslides. Minor river flooding is also possible.
Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica: Heavier rain forecasts here with totals projected to reach 4" - 8" with some locations up to one foot. Flash flooding is possible in spots with a threat for mudslides.
- South Florida & Bahamas: With the large spread of computer models listed at the top of the blog, it is premature to say exactly what will take place.
- The Florida Keys should be more alert for the possibility of gusty winds, heavy rain, rough surf and even a tornado.
- The Mainland needs to keep monitoring. Even if there is no direct impact, we could see heavy rain that may lead to flooding.
- The SE Bahamas may see some rain from the outer bands as well as the Central Bahamas. NW Bahamas, you may get something stronger if the system makes an early turn towards you.
Hopefully the models will provide better guidance by Saturday. Everyone stay alert and stay safe. We'll be watching.
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