Weak Fred

 Tropical Depression Fred is having a rough time Thursday morning, but still hanging on.

This satellite view shows how disheveled it is. On the tip of Eastern Cuba is the center spin yet most of the dense clouds and rain are sitting over Haiti and Dominican Republic.  They will continue to see another wet day leading to more flooding. 

Fred is being impacted by some strong upper level winds that are helping to keep most of the rain away from the center. The main factor for its poor present state has been the high terrain of Haiti and Dominican Republic. It should run into more problems as it nears Cuba later on Thursday.

What is next?

The bulk of the models are trending more towards the Gulf of Mexico - Florida Panhandle as the end run but first it will travel over the Keys.  At this stage of the game, with Fred so anemic, the impacts for South Florida appear to be more rain than wind. CAUTION- Fred will travel through warm waters by Friday and it could regain strength back to tropical storm. Please stay alert.

The official forecast cone from NHC, includes the Keys and Mainland South Florida, except for most of Metro Broward and a small portion of NE Miami-Dade.  Please keep in mind that effects from a storm can be felt way outside the cone. Mother Nature does not recognize a line on a map.

Fred will get pushed northwest by high pressure in the Atlantic. On Thursday it will travel just north of Cuba and south of Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands.  By Friday, Fred will be on the western edge of the high and will start turning northward. This will be a low process, and still unclear how quickly it will do so. But as shown on the spaghetti models,  most lean towards a westward track.

For the next 24 hours, the Cuban terrain should help keep it weak, but by Friday it's a different story.  The strong upper winds dogging Fred will relax and give it an opportunity to breath.  With plenty of warm water it should regain tropical storm status.

Possible Impacts Data from NHC

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern
Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Cuba beginning later today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more details.

South Florida Possible Impacts - More a rain event than wind

Everything depends on how healthy Fred is by the time it reaches us. Even as a depression it could still cause plenty of rain.  The Keys, Miami-Dade and Broward counties could see amounts between 3" - 5". This will lead to flooding concerns.  It will be breezy from time to time with some gusty moments. Marine conditions will start to worsen by Friday.

Bottom Line:

If nothing changes with Fred, at worse it appears to be a tropical storm moving over the Keys. This means pockets of heavy rain with some wind around 40 mph. Lets keep our fingers crossed thats all it will be.

I'll be watching