Tropical Storm Fiona

Tropical Storm Fiona is a bit weaker Friday.  The winds are down from 60 mph Thursday night to 50 mph now. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), says that while the system is wobbling southwestward, its general motion is to the west.

Health Check

Once you get to the daytime imagery in the loop, you'll see the center spin of the system. We can diagnose that the western side is almost cloud free with no rain, while all the cloudiness and storms are relegated to the eastern side.  This means it's battling shear (strong upper level winds) along with dry air. As long as this is around, Fiona will remain a compromised storm. This is good news for the Leeward Islands. They should not get a strong wind storm, but the rain may be a different story.

Where is it going?

High pressure in the Atlantic will continue push Fiona to the West in the short term. After it moves over the Leeward Islands, it may then trek near Puerto Rico, followed by an impact over the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Once it reaches the western periphery of the high it will turn north. The question will be, "when will it happen?" An early turn means it may impact the Central Bahamas and then Bermuda. A later turn and the NW Bahamas and Florida could be next.

Keep in mind that the cone shows where the center of circulation could be at any given time. It can be situated on the west side of the cone as well as the eastern side.

Intensity Forecast

If it impacts any land masses, such as Dominican Republic, it may be an even weaker system as it moves into the Atlantic waters. This is because of Pico Duarte , the highest terrain in all the Caribbean. This should mess with its circulation and keep it from getting stronger at the very least.

Once in the Atlantic, it will move over warm waters and have a chance to intensify.

Impacts

• Leeward Islands & Northern Windward: By this afternoon and early evening Winds will pick up to tropical storm strength. Rainfall: 3" - 6".  
• U.S. & British Virgin Islands: Deteriorating conditions by Saturday with rainfall totals of 4" - 6" 
• Puerto Rico: Could see tropical storm force winds by late Saturday with building rain bands. Total accumulations will range between 4" - 8", with some local spots as high as 12". This will lead to flooding, land and mudslides. A storm surge will accompany the storm 
• Dominican Republic and Haiti: Depending on where it makes the turn. Right now NHC has it impacting the east coast of Dominican Republic. Tropical storm force winds are forecast with rain totals of 6" - 10" with localized areas up to 16". The threat for flooding will be present. Haiti will also see some rain and should monitor the path of the storm closely.  Advisories may be initialized for you later this Friday
• Turks & Caicos: Very dependent on when Fiona turns Northward. You may get some gusty winds with a rain potential of 4" - 8"

South Florida and the Bahamas

For the time being all we can do is monitor the progress of Fiona. Many things can happen. 

• The shear may keep knocking it down. 
• The impact with any of the islands could weaken it further. 
• If the high moves east it could exit the Caribbean early and head into the Atlantic with a possible trek over the SE or Central Bahamas. 
• But as we all know, once in the Atlantic it will move over warm waters and that could help make it stronger.

A better solution on the forecast will probably come by the weekend for this area. This is a good reminder that we are in the busiest month of hurricane season and we should be mindful of any system forecast to be close to the region.

We'll be watching