Hurricane Ian & Florida

 The National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded Ian to Hurricane Status early Monday morning.

Overnight Ian intensified and continues to get better and better organized. It is soaking up all the heat energy of the Caribbean waters to grow stronger. The satellite loop shows a more symmetrical system with a better looking eye.

The center of the storm has come together now that shear has relaxed. Ian has a better looking core allowing it to draw up additional moisture for thunderstorm formation.  Imagine the center being a straw standing upright.  Nothing is squeezing the straw or preventing it from soaking up the steam coning off the water.

Also, if you look at the satellite loop, you can see the counterclockwise spin of the hurricane. There are also some clouds moving in the opposite direction. This is called outflow and it's taking place in the very high cloud tops. Basically this is Ian's exhaust pipe. Hot, moist air goes in at the surface and then its spun out as cooler air after it has rendered all its fuel. When this mechanism is happening, it's a tell tale sign that we have a very powerful hurricane in the makings.

What Next?

• Hurricane Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane just before impacting Western Cuba.  This is a mostly rural area of the island. Still, it will cause plenty of rain that will lead to flooding dangers. Winds will cause damage as it it tears its way into the Gulf.
• Forecasts indicate Ian, will thankfully move rapidly over Cuba. Hopefully this will keep the impacts down some.
• Once in the hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico , additional strengthening is anticipated.
• The west coast of Florida should be prepared for what could be a major impact from a major storm.

Possible Impacts

These are projections from NHC

Storm Surge:

E Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge & FL Bay 2-4 ft 
Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas... 2-4 ft

Wind:

Trop storm conditions expected in the warning area in lower Florida Keys on Tuesday. 
Trop storm conditions are possible in watch area     along the Florida west coast by Tuesday evening. 
Hurricane conditions are possible along the Florida West coast within the Hurricane Watch area on Wed, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night.

Rain totals thru Thursday:
Cayman Islands: 3 - 6 up to 8 inches in spots.
Western Cuba: 6 to 10, up to 16 inches.
Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches.
Central West Florida: 8 to 10 up to 15 inches.
Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches.

Ocean Swells:
Swells are expected to begin affecting the Florida   Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida through Wednesday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip         current conditions.

Watches & Warnings:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key    West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key    West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Baykmh

South Florida Forecast:

With so much moisture being swung in our direction, moments of very heavy rain will move in from time to time across our area thru Wednesday. The wind may also pick up within these rain bands.  Marine conditions will also degenerate as the systems passes by to our West.

Please tune in from time to time at WSVN on-air and on-line for the latest. New advisories are issued every three hours now, at 2, 5, 8,  & 11 throughout the day.  While most models keep the center or eye, of the hurricane in the Gulf, its impacts will be felt miles away.

We'll be watching

Ian on the move & shifting west

 Tropical Storm Ian is churning through the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Ian is still not looking good on satellite imagery but models insist on it getting stronger as it moves over warm waters.

Most of the clouds and rain remain on the western side of the storm with mostly cloud free conditions on the eastern side.

A NOAA high altitude recon plane detected that the center is tilted. Imagine a tube from an empty roll of paper towels standing upright.  A healthy system would have the center standing straight but in this case it's tilted. This is from Ian still battling shear or very strong upper winds.  As long as the shear is there it will keep the system from intensifying, but once it's gone, Ian will rapidly gain strength.

Where is it going?

For the moment it's moving more SW but eventually it will turn NW moving along the western periphery of High Pressure to the East. This SW jog will delay its turn north. This moved the entire cone west, with more of a Gulf of Mexico trek.

The close up cone places Ian as a category 3 in the Gulf with a possible track towards west Florida.  Most of the Broward / Miami-Dade county Metro areas are out of the cone. This cone may shift over the next day or two depending on what land interaction impacts may do to Ian.  IF the cone does not change So FL may get some gusty winds and heavy rain. The rain could lead to street flooding.

A reminder the cone shows you where the center of the storm may be at the forecasted time. Keep monitoring.

Impacts

• Jamaica & Cuba: Heavy rain fall will lead to flash flooding, land, and mudslides. Hurricane conditions expected by Sunday
• Cayman Islands:Hurricane force winds with heavy rain expected by Monday
• Florida Keys: Street flooding will be possible by early next week 
• Western Cuba: Ian nears as a possible major hurricane. Hurricane Force winds, heavy rain, and flooding are forecast. 
• Florida: Should watch and prepare as the forecast come aims for the state. 
• Mainland South Florida: While not in the cone, impacts will be possible such as heavy rain, gusty winds, and some flooding.

This info is from the Miami NWS office:

To open the long term period, all eyes turn to the tropics as newly
designated Tropical Storm Ian churns in the central Caribbean Sea.

There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding timing and impacts for
South Florida, but regardless expect an increase in rainfall and
potential wind impacts as early as Monday night and potentially
lasting through Wednesday. Stay tuned over the coming days as
forecast details become more focused, but take this weekend to
review your hurricane plan and make sure you are prepared for any
potential impacts.

We hope that Ian is kind throughout the Caribbean and to others down the road. Please stay informed of the latest. Tropical systems never travel in a straight line and can jog in many directions. 

We'll keep watching

So. FL. is in the Cone

 As of 5 am Friday morning, The National Hurricane Center (NHC) elevated the status of an area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea to Tropical Depression Nine. The forecast track places South Florida in the Cone of Concern.

 

Tropical Depression Nine may soon be elevated to Tropical Storm Hermine (pronounced Her-MEEN). NHC places the system somewhere inside the shaded area. The center could be anywhere in the cone of concern, as far East as the NW Bahamas and as far West as the Gulf of Mexico. It may be as strong as a Category two or winds greater than 96 mph. By the time it reaches the west coast , it could be as strong as a category three. This would make it a major storm.

Satellite View

The center of the system is just North of Venezuela and Colombia. Clouds and storms have increased on the western side. As of Friday morning it had a good surface spin or circulation that had been visible since the day before. Most of the rain is impacting Northern Colombia.

The depression is not completely firing on all cylinders. Notice the small spin in the middle of the loop, that is the center of the system. Most of the clouds and rain are on the western side. When clouds and rain wrap around the center completely, then a healthy stronger system will be present.

What Next?

The models are coming into agreement more and more. On Thursday the spread was much wider with a few taking it into the Yucatan Peninsula, others into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and some into South Florida. The latests, suggest a NE turn into the Sunshine state. Where exactly it will make landfall is still not certain.

The thinking is that the system will run into either a stalling front or high pressure coming off the U.S. Mainland. This, in turn will force the system East.  Ultimately it will be a matter of timing. How fast will the depression move into the Gulf and how quickly the high and the front make it to the southeastern U.S.

Cone

High pressure in the Atlantic will push Depression 9, NW over warm waters with little atmospheric interference. This will give it a chance to intensify. A reminder that while track forecasting is very good, intensity forecasting is still not 100% accurate. This depression is forecast to become a Hurricane by Western Cuba. It could be stronger or weaker as it passes over the region so remain alert.

Things to Watch for:

• The system will produce heavy rain in Aruba, Bonaire, & Curacao. 
• Venezuela may see 2 - 5 inches of rain
• Colombia: 3 - 6 inches will be possible
• Downpours will later move into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Rainfall forecasts call for 4 - 8 with 12 inches in spots. Watches and warnings may be issued for you later today 
• Southern Dominican Republic & Haiti: 2 - 4 inches with some areas as much as 6.
• By early next week it should be over Western Cuba and near Florida.

This kind of heavy persistent rain can lead to flooding , land , and mudslides. 

Presently

From NWS Miami Weather Office

Based on current model solutions, impacts
could range anywhere from increased moisture and thunderstorm chances
to hurricane conditions over South Florida. Given the widely ranging
model scenarios, it is impossible to say exactly what impacts this
system will have on local South Florida weather at the moment. With
favorable conditions ahead, it appears likely this system will be
strengthening this weekend and heading towards the Gulf early next
week. More details regarding track and intensity of this system will
be better understood in the coming days as models get a better handle
on the storm. In the meantime, it is a great idea to make sure your
hurricane plan is mapped out and you are keeping up with the latest
forecasts from official sources.

It is practical for all of us in the cone to review our hurricane plans and supplies. Remember your pets and medications. Many things can change with this system. The atmosphere is in constant flux so the path and intensity may change. Sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse. It's important to stay informed. You can always get the latest on-air and on-line at wsvn as well as on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. 

Caribbean Impacts

Jamaica: Has already issued an advisory this morning. All the details can be found on this link: Jamaica - Advisory

Cayman Islands issued this statement: The Cayman Islands National Weather Service will continue to monitor the progress of this Depression. The public is advised to keep abreast on the progress of Tropical Depression 9.

Cuba: Presently advising the resident on the Western Side if the island to remain vigilant.

We'll be watching

Following Five

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking or following Five areas in the Atlantic Basin. From powerful Hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston, to three waves. One of which should be watched closely across the Caribbean.

• A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is in place for Bermuda. They may have to deal with the system by the end of the week. 
• Gaston would remain a worry only for the shipping lanes 
• Of the three waves in the tropics, one is worthy of monitoring closely

The Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, Gulf of Mexico, and Florida should watch a wave that may develop over the next few days.

The image above shows powerful Hurricane Fiona moving away from the Turks & Caicos. The unimpressive cloudiness by Venezuela is the tropical wave being watched. It doesn't look like much at the moment as shear or strong upper winds are keeping it from organizing. But NHC is giving it a 90% chance as of Wednesday morning for development.

Location: 10.2°N 59.0°W 
Maximum Winds: 35 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb 
 

Where may it organize?

It may become a depression or a storm somewhere in the red shaded area over the next 5 days. Notice the models are indicating it could end up anywhere across the Caribbean through the weekend. All keep it away from Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Leeward Islands. They were just struck by Fiona and do not need a repeat of that.

Impacts

From Trinidad and Tobago Weather Office

• Showers and isolated thunderstorms, at times heavy, are expected from Wednesday morning over oceanic waters and extending across Trinidad and Tobago. This activity is associated with an active tropical wave with potential for development over the next few days. 
• Gusty winds in excess of 70km/hr can be expected along with rainfall accumulations of 75 – 125 mm. Street or flash flooding are likely in areas of heavy downpours. 
• Impacts can include larger than normal waves in both open waters and in the Gulf of Paria. Tree branches and loose objects can be displaced during strong winds. Traffic disruptions are likely in flooded areas. Expect periods of lull between bursts of rainfall and thunderstorm activity.

From Jamaica Weather Office

Most guidance suggests that the disturbed weather approaching the Caribbean with potential for development will remain a strong tropical wave or tropical storm passing just south of Jamaica. It is, however, likely to become a threat so continue to monitor closely

From Cayman Islands

Monitoring 98L following advisory from @NHC_Atlantic Disturbance forecast to move W-NW through Caribbean Sea later this week. Residents urged to monitor development of this system.

Venezuela

Along the Coast, the possibility is there of some gusty winds and rain. That will increase as the wave moves further west.

How strong could it be?

Courtesy Tropical Tidbits.com

Strength of a system is very difficult to forecast since there are so many variables. The graph above shows a handful of models trying to do just that. It appears that here too there is a wide spread since we really don't know the track yet. But the spread takes it as strong as a major hurricane in about 5-7 days.

For South Florida. No worries at the moment, but keep your eyes on it. Any system forecast to be near our area deserves to be watched.

We'll be watching

Fiona, a new Depression, and a Wave to Monitor

 The First Major Hurricane of 2022

Major Hurricane Category 3 Fiona, is leaving flooding and destruction in its wake. Presently battering the Turks & Caicos and aiming for Bermuda possibly even stronger upon arrival. 

Satellite Loop

Over the early morning hours of Tuesday, USAF hurricane hunters detected a much lower pressure reading with stronger winds. It is now the first Major Storm of the season.

If there is one thing that could keep this monster from gaining more strength is the impact Shear, or strong upper level winds, is having on the western side of Fiona. It is preventing outflow from the storm. 

Imagine an engine with an exhaust pipe. A hurricane is a tropical engine and its exhaust pipe is wind rushing to the very top of the hurricane and exiting.  Well the shear is preventing that from happening, keeping Fiona from firing on all cylinders, and yet here we are with a cat three on our hands.

What next for Fiona?

It will track NW for a day or so and then make a northeasterly turn and trek towards Bermuda. 

In the meantime:

• Turks & Caicos (Located at the extreme Southeast stretch of the Bahamas) will get hit hard by this major system throughout the day. 
• Strong gusty downpours will remain on and off across Eastern Dominican Republic 
• More pockets of heavy rain will hamper clean up efforts in Puerto Rico. Additional street flooding is possible 
• Bermuda should be prepping just in case Fiona does not weaken 

For the latest on storm forecasting, clean up, donations, and storm updates please follow us on-air and on-line for the latest.

Tropical Wave to Watch

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is actually monitoring two ares for development. The one in red was upgraded to Depression 8, it should just be a worry for the shipping lanes. Meanwhile the one in orange will be a concern throughout the Caribbean.

This robust wave is sitting a couple of hundred miles East of the Windward Islands. It has plenty of thunderstorm activity and may develop into a depression or storm in the area highlighted.  

This is now Invest98L

Located: 10.3N, 53.0W. The pressure is holding at 1011 mb with winds around 30 mph.

Extremely early models suggest a track into the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. These are just guesstimates but they give us a general idea of the area the system may be down the road. They will change plenty in the days ahead.  For my Caribbean friends, please monitor the wave carefully so you have time to prepare.  For South Florida. Keep your eyes on it.  This is another example that Hurricane season is still here and getting very active.

We'll keep watching

Tropical Storm Fiona

Tropical Storm Fiona is a bit weaker Friday.  The winds are down from 60 mph Thursday night to 50 mph now. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), says that while the system is wobbling southwestward, its general motion is to the west.

Health Check

Once you get to the daytime imagery in the loop, you'll see the center spin of the system. We can diagnose that the western side is almost cloud free with no rain, while all the cloudiness and storms are relegated to the eastern side.  This means it's battling shear (strong upper level winds) along with dry air. As long as this is around, Fiona will remain a compromised storm. This is good news for the Leeward Islands. They should not get a strong wind storm, but the rain may be a different story.

Where is it going?

High pressure in the Atlantic will continue push Fiona to the West in the short term. After it moves over the Leeward Islands, it may then trek near Puerto Rico, followed by an impact over the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Once it reaches the western periphery of the high it will turn north. The question will be, "when will it happen?" An early turn means it may impact the Central Bahamas and then Bermuda. A later turn and the NW Bahamas and Florida could be next.

Keep in mind that the cone shows where the center of circulation could be at any given time. It can be situated on the west side of the cone as well as the eastern side.

Intensity Forecast

If it impacts any land masses, such as Dominican Republic, it may be an even weaker system as it moves into the Atlantic waters. This is because of Pico Duarte , the highest terrain in all the Caribbean. This should mess with its circulation and keep it from getting stronger at the very least.

Once in the Atlantic, it will move over warm waters and have a chance to intensify.

Impacts

• Leeward Islands & Northern Windward: By this afternoon and early evening Winds will pick up to tropical storm strength. Rainfall: 3" - 6".  
• U.S. & British Virgin Islands: Deteriorating conditions by Saturday with rainfall totals of 4" - 6" 
• Puerto Rico: Could see tropical storm force winds by late Saturday with building rain bands. Total accumulations will range between 4" - 8", with some local spots as high as 12". This will lead to flooding, land and mudslides. A storm surge will accompany the storm 
• Dominican Republic and Haiti: Depending on where it makes the turn. Right now NHC has it impacting the east coast of Dominican Republic. Tropical storm force winds are forecast with rain totals of 6" - 10" with localized areas up to 16". The threat for flooding will be present. Haiti will also see some rain and should monitor the path of the storm closely.  Advisories may be initialized for you later this Friday
• Turks & Caicos: Very dependent on when Fiona turns Northward. You may get some gusty winds with a rain potential of 4" - 8"

South Florida and the Bahamas

For the time being all we can do is monitor the progress of Fiona. Many things can happen. 

• The shear may keep knocking it down. 
• The impact with any of the islands could weaken it further. 
• If the high moves east it could exit the Caribbean early and head into the Atlantic with a possible trek over the SE or Central Bahamas. 
• But as we all know, once in the Atlantic it will move over warm waters and that could help make it stronger.

A better solution on the forecast will probably come by the weekend for this area. This is a good reminder that we are in the busiest month of hurricane season and we should be mindful of any system forecast to be close to the region.

We'll be watching

Tropical Wave to Watch

 A tropical wave East of the Lesser Antilles has a high chance for development according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of Wednesday morning, the chances for organization have gone up to 70%.

This wide field satellite view shows a swirl just about in the middle of the screen, this is the wave being followed. It's also been deemed Invest 96L. 

Close Up View

Courtesy Tropical Tid Bits

The Invest is located roughly 800 miles East of the Lesser Antilles

Location: 16.4°N 49.1°W 
Top Winds: 34 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb or 29.80"

The showers and thunderstorms within the wave have not diminished as of Wednesday morning. On the satellite loop above you can see the spin coming together. The reds and oranges represent where the heaviest rain can be found. The west side of the system remains cloud free. Once it closes it will be a sure sign of organization.

If it is going to organize, it will do so inside highlighted area.

Working for the wave:

• Warm waters. This will provide the fuel it needs to grow
• Ample moisture: This will help in thunderstorm formation within the wave

Working against the wave:

• Shear. These are strong upper level winds that help cut down developing thunderstorms

Where is it headed?

Even if it doesn't turn into a depression or a storm, it will drop plenty of rain and cause gusty winds by the Leeward Islands towards the end of the week.  The Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico should keep an eye on the wave. NWS office from Puerto says there is no immediate threat from this wave but some windy conditions and heavy rain is possible from Friday night into the weekend. In the long term, Dominican Republic, Haiti, & SE Bahamas should monitor.

Models

South Florida just needs to keep an eye out. It is still too early to determine where this system will ultimately end up. 

Euro model

This model takes the wave (possible depression), westward into the Leeward Islands and thru Puerto Rico and Dom. Republic by September 18th.

GFS Model

This model has a much longer run, going as far out as September 22nd.  The run is a bit complicated, taking the system over the Hispaniola and almost falling apart. It then curves northward into the Bahamas and possibly staying east of the U.S.  

CAUTION: Since there is no center of circulation and nothing has formed, these models are just giving us a guesstimate. Other models curve the system northward even before reaching the Lesser Antilles. Once a system organizes, then the models have something concrete to work with and can provide a more accurate forecast.

For South Florida: Even if the wave does not get any stronger, there is a chance we could see some tropical rain by early next week.

We'll be watching

Bookend Hurricanes

The U.S is in between two hurricanes. One may cause choppy seas to the U.S., while the other could drop heavy rain across parts of California.

This is the Thursday morning world Satellite loop. South America is to the bottom of the page and the U.S above. There are two cloud swirls on either side of the country. On the east is soon to be very powerful hurricane Earl, the other is hurricane Kay, near Baja California .

Hurricane Earl

Satellite imagery over the storm shows the center of circulation with nice rain bands. It's moving over warm waters and is forecast to become a major hurricane later today.  Fortunately it should remain over open waters bypassing Bermuda. BUT they are not totally out of the woods. If the system makes any little jog west, they may get more of its fury. For the moment, Bermuda is under a Hurricane Watch. Some gusty winds are possible today.

The East Coast of the U.S may see some indirect impacts: This is from NHC.

Surf: Swell generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are expected to reach the U.S East Coast later today/tonight.

These swell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions thru the weekend. 

South Florida will not see impacts from the system.

Hurricane Kay

The Satellite imagery reveals a rather large Cat 1 hurricane with heavy rain and tropical storm force winds impacting Baja California. The system  will hug the coast for the next several days.

U.S. Impacts

Southern California: 2-4 inches of rain with 6" in spots Large Swells will impact the California Coast causing rip currents Southwest Arizona: 1-2 inches with 3 inches maximumThese totals may lead to flash floods and mudslides